IGBT: The most promising track in the field of power device

IGBT (INSULED GATED GATE BIPOLAR Transistor), an insulation grid bipolar transistor, is a full-control voltage of BJT (bipolar knot transistor, that is, triode) and MOSFET (metal-oxide semiconductor field effect transistor).Driving power semiconductor device.IGBT also has the advantages of MOSFET input impedance, fast switching speed, small control power, simple driving circuit, small switching loss, and low BJT drive voltage, large -state current, and small loss.Therefore, the IGBT driver power is small and saturated with a reduced saturation pressure. It is a kind of power electronic device suitable for medium and high-power applications. It is currently widely used in the mid-to-high-voltage field of 650-6,500V.Essence

IGBT integrates the structure of BJT and MOSFET

Image source: Electrical Electronic Technology and New Energy

According to the different manufacturing technology and downstream application scenarios, IGBT has three types: single -pipe, IGBT module and smart power module IPM.

IGBT three types, characteristics and downstream applications

Data source: BYD Microelectronics prospectus, Hongwei Technology Prospectus, Core Eight Brother

In addition, due to different application scenarios such as downstream consumer electronics, new energy, rail transit, etc., the required IGBT voltage is also different. According to the voltage, IGBT includes types such as ultra -low voltage, low voltage, medium voltage and high voltage.different.Among them, the IGBT used by new energy vehicles, industrial control, and household appliances is mainly medium voltage, while rail transit, new energy power generation and smart grids have higher voltage requirements, mainly using high -voltage IGBT.

Source: Core Eight Brother Organization

As a global IGBT leading company, Yingfei Ling has become a benchmark for local manufacturers.As of 2021, Yingfeeling products have iterated to the seventh generation.Among them, the fifth generation and the sixth generation belong to the fourth generation optimized version (the fifth generation belongs to the fourth generation of the high -power version, and the sixth generation is the fourth generation of the high -frequency version).IGBT devices need to withstand high voltage and large currents, and high requirements for stability and reliability.In the future, IGBT will develop towards smaller size, larger wafers, and thinner thickness, and achieve progress of the entire chip technology through the improvement of cost, power density, knot temperature, reliability and other aspects.In addition, the future trend of the IGBT module will also be towards higher thermal guidance materials, thicker copper cover layers, better integrated heat dissipation functions and higher reliability development.

IgBT chip is sorted out by IgBT chip

Source: Yingfei Ling Industrial Officer Wei

Demand side: Large market, IGBT in depth benefits

In 2021, the global IGBT market size was about 7.09 billion U.S. dollars, close to 50 billion yuan.Cagr reached 14%from 2016 to 2020.The Chinese market accounts for about 40%of the global market.

Global IGBT market size ($ 100 million)

Data source: Core Eight Brother Organization

In 2020, the scale of single tube, IPM, and module market accounted for 24%, 22%, and 54%. 

IGBT segment market size proportion

Data source: Core Eight Brother Organization

According to YOLE data, the market size of industrial, home, electric vehicles, rail transits, photovoltaic, and other industries accounted for 31%, 24%, 9%, 6%, and 4%.

IGBT downstream application proportion

Data source: YOLE, Core Eight Brother Compilation

New energy vehicles are the largest incremental market for IGBT.IGBT is mainly used in the motor control system, thermal management system, and vehicle charger of the new energy vehicle. In the main inverter, IGBT converts the DC electricity of high -voltage batteries to AC power to drive three -phase motor.Converted to DC electricity and charging high-voltage batteries. In the DC-DC converter, IGBT converts the high voltage output of high-voltage batteries to low-voltage and is used for low-voltage power supply networks. In addition, IGBT is also widely used in PTC heater, water pump, oil pump, oil pump, oil pump, oil pumpIn the air-conditioning compressor and other supplementary inverters, the small power DC-AC conversion is completed.

IGBT is widely used in new energy vehicles

Image source: Sympathetic Semiconductor

According to Strategy Analytics, the value of pure electric vehicle power semiconductor bicycles reached 330 US dollars (equivalent to RMB 2100).Generally, the value of IGBT bicycles of A00 is 800 yuan, and the value of A -class electric vehicle IGBT bicycle is 2,000 yuan.At present, some high -end models use four -wheel drive system (such as ideal ONE), and the four -wheel drive system uses two electronic control modules. It is estimated that the value of IGBT bicycles of the four -wheel drive model will reach 3200 yuan. Considering the impact of IGBT procurement in normal years, it is expected that new energy vehicles are expected to be new energy vehicles.The value of IGBT bicycles is maintained at 1700 yuan.

In 2021, the global new energy vehicle sales reached 6.5 million, corresponding to the IGBT market size of 11.1 billion yuan, and China's new energy vehicle sales reached 3.5 million, corresponding to 6 billion yuan in the IGBT market.Suppose that global new energy vehicles in 2025 and 2030 reached 22.5 million vehicles (25%of the penetration) and 45 million vehicles (50%of the penetration rate), corresponding to the IGBT market size of 38.3 billion yuan, 76.5 billion yuan, and 2020 ~ 2025 CAGR reaches rendering48%, 2020 ~ 2030 Cagr reached 31%.

Photovoltaic & amp; energy storage is the second incremental market of IGBT.IGBT is the core device of photovoltaic inverters and energy storage inverters. The centralized photovoltaic photovoltaic uses IGBT modules. The divided photovoltaic photovoltaic is mainly used by IGBT single tube or module (single phase is generally used in IGBT single pipes, and three -phase can choose IGBT single single.Tube or module).

The role of photovoltaic inverter is to turn the DC electricity generated by photovoltaic components into AC power

Image source: chinaPrecede

The value of the power semiconductor of photovoltaic semiconductor is 2000 ~ 5,000 euros, the value of the semiconductor MW of energy storage power is 2500 ~ 3500 euros, and the unit price of IGBT is 3,000 euros/mW (equivalent to 21 million yuan/gw).According to the prospectus of Gudewei and Jinlang Technology, IGBT accounts for 11%to 12%of the procurement cost of raw materials, 93%to 94%of the cost of raw materials, and the average gross profit margin in the past three years is 35%.7%of the market size of the inverter.

It is estimated that the shipments of the energy storage inverter in 2025 and 2030 in 2030, the energy storage inverter reached 542, 1650GW, the market size reached 1500 and 399.9 billion yuan, corresponding to the global photovoltaic & amp; energy storage IGBT market size reached 108, 28 billion yuan, 2020 ~ 2025 2025The year CAGR reaches 30%, 2020 ~ 2030 CAGR reaches 25%

The field of white electricity: IGBT is mainly used in frequency frequency air conditioners, frequency conversion refrigerators, and frequency conversion washing machines. The main products are IPM and IGBT single pipes.In 2020, the shipments of the Chinese home for frequency conversion air conditioning were 83.37 million units, the penetration rate was 58%, the sales volume of the inverter washing machine in China reached 26.27 million units, the penetration rate was 42%.Suppose that in the future, the penetration rate of inverter air conditioners, frequency conversion washing machines, and frequency conversion refrigerators will increase by 3%, and the value of the single IGBT single IGBT in the frequency frequency air conditioner is 40 yuan.The size of the IGBT market reached 54, 70, and 8.5 billion yuan, the CAGR of 2020 ~ 2025 reached 5%, and the CAGR of 2020 to 2030 reached 5%.Considering China's air -conditioning output accounting for 80%, refrigerator output accounted for 60%, and the output of washing machines accounted for 40%. Corresponding to 2020, 2025, and 20130, the global white electric IGBT market size reached 73, 94, and 11.5 billion yuan.

Industry and other areas: The main application areas in the field of industrial control covers inverter, inverter welding machine, and UPS.In 2020, the global IGBT market size reached US $ 6.7 billion (equivalent to RMB 45.9 billion), and the Chinese IGBT market size reached 2.6 billion US dollars (equivalent to RMB 17.9 billion).It is estimated that the global market size of other fields (mainly including industry, rail transit, power supply, etc.) has reached 30.3 billion yuan, and the size of the Chinese market will reach 8.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the global and other fields of China will grow steadily with 4%and 6%.Corresponding to 2025 and 2030, the global market size reached 369 and 44.9 billion yuan, and the Chinese market size reached 109 and 14.6 billion yuan.

In summary, the global IGBT market will become a 100 billion -level market in 2025, of which new energy vehicles and new energy power generation have contributed greatly.

Supply side: Overseas giants monopoly, domestic manufacturers have made breakthroughs

From the perspective of the global IGBT competition pattern, the industry is more concentrated. According to YOLE, the industry CR3 reached 50%in 2020. Yingfei Ling is an absolute leader in the industry and a market share of 27%.

Global IGBT competition pattern in 2020

Data source: YOLE, Core Eight Brother Compilation

Looking at the product type:

IGBT monocular pipes are mainly used in small -power household appliances, divided photovoltaic inverters, and small power inverters. The manufacturing process is an epoxy injection molding process.In 2020, the industry CR3 reached 53%. Yingfei Ling was an absolute leader in the industry and a market share of over 29%. The domestic Syranium market share of 2.6%, ranking tenth.

Global IGBT single -pipe market competition pattern in 2020

Data source: OMDIA, Core Eight Brother

The IPM module is used in white home appliances and the inverter air conditioner and frequency conversion washing machine. The manufacturing process is an epoxy injection molding process.In 2020, the industry CR3 reached 62%. Mitsubishi is the absolute leader of the industry and the market share of 33%.Tenth place.

Global IPM module market competition pattern in 2020

Data source: OMDIA, Core Eight Brother

The IGBT module is used in high -power inverters, welding machines, new energy vehicles, centralized photovoltaic and other fields. The manufacturing process is an irrigation process.In 2020, the industry CR3 reached 58%. Yingfei Ling was an absolute leader in the industry and a market share of 36%. The domestic Sida semi -guided market share reached 2.8%, ranking sixth.

Global IGBT module market competition pattern in 2020

Data source: OMDIA, Core Eight Brother

Domestic alternative: shortage of stock+price increase, domestic manufacturers are accelerating the rise

According to YOLE, from the perspective of output, the domestic self -sufficiency rate in 2015 was 10%, and the domestic self -sufficiency rate in 2021 was only 19%, and the industry's self -sufficiency rate was slowly increased.Considering the higher specifications of overseas products, the domestic production rate is expected to be lower in terms of market scale and caliber.

Data source: YOLE, Core Eight Brother Compilation & Nbsp;

From the perspective of the industry, the domestic rate of new energy vehicles is high, and the nationalization rate of photovoltaics is close to 0.

New Energy Vehicles: Thanks to the booming development of the Chinese new energy vehicle market in recent years, it has driven the rapid growth of domestic IGBT manufacturers. The localization rate of new energy vehicles is relatively high.EssenceIn 2020, the car -class IGBT module produced by Sida in 2020 has a total of more than 200,000 new energy vehicles and market share of more than 200,000 new energy vehicles.

2019 China New Energy Vehicle IGBT Competition (Supporting Activation)

Data source: Sisi Auto Research, Cing Eight Brother Compilation

Photovoltaic & AMP; Energy storage: In 2020, the localization rate in this field in this field is close to 0.According to the annual report of Gudewei 2021, "IGBT components have fewer domestic manufacturers. Compared with imported components, there are certain differences in product stability and technical indicators. At present, domestic IGBT components, IC semiconductor performance stability and related technologiesThe indicator failed to fully meet the technical requirements of the company's products. It is expected that import substitutions cannot be fully achieved in the short term. "

Industry: Studa semi -guide is the leading IGBT leader in the domestic industrial control. In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Star's industrial control and power supply industry reached 60,000 to 700 million yuan, the corresponding market share was about 7%and 9%, and the domestic production rate of the industrial control industry was low.

Since 2020, the demand side has benefited from the outbreak of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic demand. The supply side of overseas epidemic has repeatedly restricted overseas production capacity, IGBT supply and demand are unbalanced, overseas factories have continued to rise, and prices have continued to rise.

In the context of supply and insight, the domesticization process depends on the speed of production capacity. The domesticization rate in 2022 is expected to reach 37%.From the perspective of the domestic IDM model's leading IGBT production capacity planning, BYD semi -guide and the 8 -inch wafer capacity of 2022 have doubled growth.From the perspective of IGBT capacity planning, it can also achieve more than 60%of growth. From the perspective of capacity data, it is estimated that domestic production capacity will increase by 90%+in 2022. We estimate that the domestic listed company IGBT revenue is expected to achieve double growth, the domestic rate reaches 37%Essence

Source: Company Announce

Judging from the latest Q2 performance, Sida semi -guide and Yangjie technology net profit have reached a record high in the single quarter.

Among them, the main business revenue of Suda semi -guide in the first half of the year has grown steadily and rapidly. Products have continued to increase rapidly in industries such as new energy vehicles, clean energy, energy storage and other industries.47.37%of half a year;

Yangjie Technology also said that products have continued to increase rapidly in emerging application fields such as automotive electronics and clean energy. In the first half of this year, the sales revenue of new products such as MOSFET, IGBT, SIC, and other new products increased by more than 100%year -on -year.

Times Electric IGBT's second -stage production capacity utilization rate has been close to 90%, which has been further improved from Q1, and the yield rate has exceeded 80%.

Comparison

Data source: Related enterprise public information, Xinzhiger sorted out

Industry development prospects: IGBT becomes fragrant

Trend 1: IGBT supply will not be long for a long time

From July 2020, the supply of products in the entire semiconductor industry has been tense to varying degrees. By October, the problem of outbreaks of the outbreak of the outbreak of the shortcomings broke out. In May 2021, the problem of semiconductor shortages reached the highest peak, and the entire industry's supply and demand was completely unbalanced.Due to the continuous tension of production capacity, the goods period of the IGBT product in 2021 also continued to extend, and there was no relief in Q3.The delivery period of IGBT products of IGBT products in Yingfeeling, Ansonami and MicroSemi has been extended to 39-52 weeks, and the price has continued to rise. Although the market forecast will be alleviated in 2022It will not be relieved in 2023.

Trend 2: IGBT ’s localization progress accelerates

As the global manufacturing industry has shifted to China, China has gradually become the world's largest IGBT market.Driven by strong market demand, a group of overseas Chinese with IGBT -related experience returned to the IGBT industry.At the same time, the Chinese government has successively introduced relevant policies to encourage the development of the IGBT industry to stimulate IGBT companies to overcome the problem of card neck.Driven by industrial policies and market demand, IGBT ’s localization process accelerates.From the perspective of domestic replacement, the electrical of CRRC has fully grasped power semiconductor product technology such as crystal gates, rectifier, IGCT, IGBT, SIC devices and power components, and has solid strength in key areas such as high -speed rail IGBT.Star semi -guide has the seventh -generation IGBT technology, which is fully applied to vehicle, photovoltaic, wind power, engineering control and home appliances, and the seventh -generation IGBT technology car regulation chip has been successfully developed. It is expected to be supplied in batches with 2022.Other companies are still available in domestic alternatives in the fields of industrial control, photovoltaic and wind power, but their progress in high -end fields such as new energy vehicles is relatively slow.

Trend III: car regulations IGBT is expected to become the largest downstream market

With the release of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", new energy vehicles have become the main direction of the global automotive industry and an important engine to promote the sustainable world economy.EssenceIn the context of dual carbon, new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles are the general trend, and the sales of new energy vehicles in the future are expected to further increase.New energy vehicles are the largest demanders in the downstream of China IGBT, accounting for about 31%. Therefore, the car regulations IGBT is likely to become the largest downstream market for IGBT.The concentration of China's car regulating IGBT industry is extremely high, CR4 is as high as 84.4%, CR2 is as high as 76.2%, only 3 suppliers are domestic brands, and the Yingfeeling family has 58.2%of the market share. BYD semiconductor is the Chinese market in the Chinese marketThe most capable local manufacturer who is capable of challenging Yingfei Ling, but the market share only 18%, the local IGBT leading manufacturer Stadar semi -guide is slower in the car regulation IGBT, the market share is only 1.6%, and the auto regulations IGBT domesticizationThe space is huge.